Saturday, October 24, 2009

In an age of transparency one thing is still private.

I once overhead my mother in-law mention that girls really should "keep their privates private". One only needs to look at the likes of Girls Gone Wild or Dirty Scottsdale to realize the merits of this creed. Think about it. Paris Hilton becomes famous for having a sex tape and being rich. Then Kim Kardashian becomes famous for being friends with Paris, having a sex tape and a big butt. At least when J-Lo was famous for having a big butt she also had a singing and acting career. It begs the question, "is anything private these days?"

In an age of TMZ, celebrity blogs, twitter and 24 hour tabloid....err...news stations, we now know more about just about everyone. Do I really need to know about Letterman sleeping around at work? I doubt this would have happened with Johnny Carson. Do I really need to know that Clinton had a relationship with a porky intern? I hope this never happened with Reagan or Carter. But if it did, I am glad I never heard about it.

In the case of Letterman and Clinton, transparency led to forgiveness. If you admit and come clean, America will usually sympathize and forgive (it makes me think that maybe Bonds ought to take this advice and fess up to the steroid use). In the case of Kardashian and Hilton, transparency led to fame and fortune. The internet has created an information age where news travels at an alarmingly fast rate (made even faster by the fact that a lot of news outlets don't verify sources) and it is nearly impossible to keep anything private.

Yet one area of society lacks transparency and the ramifications are huge. I am referring to our economic system. Capitalism thrives under transparency. Transparency allows for consumers to make wise choices. It allows for businesses to adapt, grow and stay competitive.

A lack of transparency creates a system where average Joe's gamble their retirement by investing in funds that they assume are relatively safe. They don't realize these funds are involved in credit default swaps and other risky maneuvers. Or maybe they are more conservative and invest in a bond fund. The bonds are collateralized by mortgages and are given a AAA rating. Sounds safe. Real Estate seems stable. Nobody mentioned how many of those mortgages were subprime ARM's. Not long ago, most people thought a subprime ARM was what happened when the Diamondbacks went to the bullpen. "Randy Johnson has one hell of an arm...but that bullpen is full of subprime arms."

So maybe our society needs to focus less on what Kim Kardashian is up to (seriously, do we need to know that the her sister with the manface married Lamar Odom). Instead we should be concerned more with what Goldman Sachs is doing. When it comes to our financial system, lets make our privates public.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Greed is Good and Capiitalism is the Cure!

A lot of people have blamed greed for the current economic meltdown. Corporations took on why too much risk in their myopic pursuit of double digit growth. The next logical step is to blame capitalism, since capitalism is based on the concept that greed is good. Therefor, capitalism is bad because it created too much greed.

But there are a few fallacies with this argument.

Myth #1 Capitalism creates greed

Economic systems do not create greed. Man was greedy before capitalism was ever in existence.The history of the world is rich with stories of battles fought for economic purposes (battles over trade routes, land, slaves, spices, weapons and in the case of Iraq....oil). As long as there is scarcity of resources, there will be greed. Even if there was no scarcity of resources, greed will still be prevalent. Inequality would still exist in power, looks, athletic ability, intelligence or any other number of factors. If my neighbor and I both have the same exact resource but my wife is hotter or my job gives me more power, than there will still be greed.

Myth #2 Greed is bad

The economy thrives when consumers are confident (aka greedy) and decide to purchase goods and services. Greed is what makes us want something better out of life. Imagine if man was content with watching Remington Steele on Betamax. Thank God greed led to discontent and that led to better TV shows and technology for recording them. Now I can watch The office on DVR....which is way better. Greed encourages discontentment which is what drives a lot of technological innovation.

Myth #3 Greed led to the economic downfall

There are numerous factors that led to the economic downfall. One could argue that much of the housing bubble was created by government intervention which encouraged homeownership for everyone. While this was a lofty goal, the reality is it also encouraged Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to loosen up lending guidelines and abandon the financial prudence the were originally founded on. Another example of government intervention leading to economic troubles would be our huge trade deficits. Drilling in Anwar could help reduce our reliance on foreign oil, likewise reducing the trade deficits we run will OPEC nations. This is a clear cut case of environmental policies costing the economy jobs.

Encouraging a strong dollar over the last few decades has made our exports too expensive and encouraged US buyers to turn to foreign imports. Greed did not lead to these huge deficits. Failed economic policies did. In a true capitalist economy, a country like China would not be able to artificially weaken their currency and run huge trade surpluses. They would be forced to even out the trade surplus by purchasing goods from western nations, benefiting the manufacturing sectors of both countries. One could even argue that the fact that the Chinese government refuses to give in to the greed of a billion and a half hungry consumers in order to run large surpluses has led to the economic downfall.

It was not greedy consumers that hurt our economy. It was the fact that our entire economy and much of the global economy become too reliant on US consumers spending. At the same time, the US continued to export jobs. It started as manufacturing jobs and continued with engineering, accounting and other sectors. The solution is not to discourage greed. Rather the solution lies in making the US economy a competitive and productive economy.

Here are a few thoughts on how to do this:

-Determine where our competitive advantages lie and build up those sectors. For example, British Humor sucks. But American humor is awesome. There has to be something else we are better at than just making jokes. Lets find out where our advantages lie and exploit them.
-Negotiate fair trade agreements that create wealth and parity for both countries. We buy shoes made in China, they buy our Pop-tarts and Cornflakes.
-Encourage entrepreneurship. Imagine if we spent a fraction of what we waste on military contracts lending money to start-ups. I read an article once about how researchers are developing a biofuel out of alae. Hypothetically if this biofuel was to become a legitimate source of energy and it was US scientist who were first to break this technological barrier. It would give us an advantage over other countries. Same goes for stem cell research, nano technology and other future innovations.
-Reduce government spending and grow the private sector. Last I checked, you can not spend your way out of a deficit.
-Privatize a portion of social security. This would add liquidity to the market and give the average Joe a bigger stake in the economy.
-Strongly enforce anti-trust laws. The consolidation of the financial, pharmaceutical and energy industries has led to a large number of oligopolies which discourage competition and hurt consumers. I once saw an intersection where 3 gas stations were all circle K's. Apparently an Exxon and mobile both became mobile, which then became circle K. Later, the Shell across the street became circle K as well. In my neighborhood we have a B of A branch inside of a grocery star, then their is a B of A Home Loans branch and a B of A bank branch. I could literally want a few hundred yards and run into 3 separate Bank of Americas.
- Let crappy businesses fail. Maybe filing for BK will lead to a leaner, stronger, more innovative GM.

Ultimately it will be competition and capitalism that will lead to the economic recovery. Lets just hope that this next time around that there are safeguards in place to be sure that we are all playing by the same rules.